There have been 8 prime ministers under President Macron - has he lost his grip on the National Assembly?
Less than a month after his appointment, and less than 24 hours after he had picked his government, Sebastian Lecornu resigned from office. He was then reappointed 4 days later. This instability and uncertainty over his appointment has created an air of distrust in the French Executive, mainly affecting President Macron: his approval rating is at just 11%, the lowest of any French president in 50 years.
When President Macron first assumed office in May 2017, he appointed Prime Minister Édouard Phillipe. Phillipe was a centre-right conservative with whom Macron thought he could expand his political reach. This was successful for the majority of Macron’s first term, with Phillipe lasting 3 years in office. He is both the longest-serving prime minister under Macron and perhaps the one which provided the most stable period for Macron’s grip on the Assembly, with France’s economic growth hovering around 2% per annum under Philippe until the COVID-19 pandemic.
It was Macron’s pro-business ideas that made a centrist an ideal candidate, especially one with the prowess of Philippe. Philippe commanded the centrist coalition, and choosing a candidate from the centre-right when Macron himself was more of a left-centrist and neoliberalist created a collaborative government and appeased the centre-right. This is a stark contrast to Macron's current prime minister predicament.
Following Philippe’s stable premiership, Macron had two prime ministers who provided some stability for him: Jean Castex, a centre-right politician who resigned once Macron was re-elected, as was tradition, and Élizabeth Borne, a centre-leftist whose removal was seen by many as a way for Macron to try and revitalise his control over a National Assembly in which his party had failed to gain a majority. However, her time in office saw Macron’s ratings plummet.
Macron’s grip had truly begun to weaken, and the following picks for Prime Minister did not improve the already dire situation. 2 years. 4 prime ministers. A worse record than the UK from 2021-2022. Even one of France’s most popular politicians, Gabriel Attal, could not secure a foothold in the National Assembly for Macron as France’s youngest and first openly gay prime minister, lasting a total of 9 months.
Michel Barnier: he lost a vote of no confidence and was France’s shortest-serving prime minister under the Fifth Republic until Lecornu. Another punch in the gut for Macron. Francois Bayrou: he gambled on his own policies - another vote of no confidence, another prime minister gone. This brings us back to Lecornu. 26 days in office.
Having two record-breakingly short premierships within a year epitomises the current situation in France. With Macron plummeting in the polls and prime ministers struggling to stay in their job, one has to ask, how long can Macron continue? With elections scheduled for 2027, can he last? Édouard Philippe himself says that Macron should step down. Being as low as he is in the polls, clearly the French public support this decision.
The real key to the President’s loss of control is perhaps his lack of a majority in the National Assembly, which he enjoyed for much of his first term. Very little can pass, which creates an environment in which the President struggles to control the Legislative branch of government, creating political turmoil.
One of Macron’s greatest opponents, Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally party, says she would be content to see Macron serve his term until her party gets a majority in the National Assembly. This then poses a further question—is Macron’s downfall linked to the rise of right-wing populism across Europe? I would say that it is.
We’ve seen right-wing populist parties rise in the polls in recent years. Reform UK in the UK, AfD in Germany, National Rally in France, and many more. Recent economic instability due to COVID and the Russia-Ukraine War has led the far-right parties to make gains in the polls and even in elected bodies by scapegoating certain people groups and immigration and distracting away from the European wealthy elite and their growing bank accounts, whilst the target audience of these far-right parties stay poor.
Much of this stems also from the 2008 economic crash, which led to widespread austerity across Europe over the past 15 years and has led to a systemic lack of education funding and funding of welfare to the poorest in society. This has created anger and tension in working-class communities across Europe, which has left far-right demagogues salivating at the opportunity to run for office. Then, due to the further economic turmoil during COVID, they got that opportunity.
The established democratic systems in Europe create legitimacy and make it more difficult for coups to work successfully, so any authoritarian populist would have to run for government through correct means. These established bodies also create a tough minefield for these right-wing populists to run without being quickly shut down for racism or antidemocratic sentiments. However, recent financial tensions have created the perfect primordial soup for these figures to emerge, including the National Rally’s Marine Le Pen.
It could be then said that Macron’s party lost a majority in the National Assembly in part due to the rise in popularity of the National Rally. This then created a situation in which even France’s most commanding and respected politicians could not take the reins of such an out-of-control stallion that is the current National Assembly. This means that Macron finds himself in a situation that he will struggle to get out of whilst keeping his respect and popularity. If he left now, an election would take place and a new president would take over and probably face the same issues Macron has, getting nothing done. But if he rides the storm, he could end up gifting the next election to the National Rally, much the same as the conservatives did to Labour from 2022-2024.
If this were to happen, it could threaten rights, democracy, and the French Republic as we know it. We, and the rest of Europe, should watch closely to avoid the mistakes that France has and will make. If we do not heed this warning, it could be a forecast for our own country and the rest of Europe and could lead to the demise of our own democracy.
To sum up, the French have a prime minister problem; that much is clear. Some may argue it to be the fault of Macron and his selection; others may look to wider societal issues. However, this much is clear: if this problem is not fixed, the future of the French Republic could drastically change.
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